HDB Resale Prices Fall for Two Quarters: Has the Market Really Turned?

HDB resale prices have fallen for two consecutive quarters, raising the inevitable question: has Singapore’s public housing market finally turned? The official Resale Price Index slipped 0.1% in Q1 2026 and another 0.3% in Q2, the first back-to-back quarterly decline since 2019. Yet prices remain barely below their record, transaction activity is still healthy, and a record 491 million-dollar flats changed hands in Q2.

The boom has clearly lost momentum. But the evidence points to a modest, highly uneven correction—not a broad housing crash.

To understand what is actually happening, buyers and owners must look past the national index. Town, flat type, remaining lease, price segment and project quality now matter more than the headline number.

HDB Resale Prices in 2026: A Turn, but Not a Tumble

HDB’s Resale Price Index, or RPI, measures price movements after adjusting for differences in the flats sold. It is therefore more useful for tracking the underlying market than a simple national average.

The latest numbers establish a genuine change in direction:

Quarter	HDB RPI	Quarter-on-quarter change	Official resale registrations
Q2 2025	202.9	+0.9%	7,102
Q3 2025	203.7	+0.4%	7,221
Q4 2025	203.6	0.0%	5,256
Q1 2026	203.4	-0.1%	6,285
Q2 2026	202.8	-0.3%	6,396

Sources: HDB’s Q2 2026 public housing statistics and Realila’s transaction analysis.

Three conclusions follow from this short sequence.

First, the market peaked in Q3 2025 and has since edged lower. The cumulative decline from Q4 2025 through Q2 2026 was approximately 0.4%.

Second, the pace of change remains extremely modest. The Q2 index was only around 0.4% below its record. That is not comparable to the double-digit drawdowns usually associated with a property crash.

Third, transactions are still clearing. Official resale registrations rose from 6,285 in Q1 to 6,396 in Q2, an increase of 1.8%. Buyers have not disappeared; they are simply negotiating more firmly.

Year-on-year activity was weaker. Q2 volume was 9.9% below Q2 2025, while the 12,681 registrations recorded in the first half of 2026 were about 7.4% lower than a year earlier. This suggests reduced urgency rather than market paralysis.

The emerging picture is of a market transitioning from rapid, seller-led appreciation to slower price discovery. Buyers have more options and greater bargaining power, while sellers can no longer assume that the next offer will exceed the last comparable transaction.

The boom has turned

The first-half decline looks more significant when placed beside the recent boom:

Period	HDB resale price change
1H2024	+4.2%
1H2025	+2.5%
1H2026	About -0.4%

The directional change is real. But falling momentum and falling prices are not the same as widespread distress. The market has stopped climbing broadly; it has not begun collapsing broadly.

Why the HDB Index Fell While Average Prices Rose

One of the most confusing features of Q2 was that the RPI declined even though the average transaction price and average price per square foot rose.

Metric	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Change
HDB RPI	203.4	202.8	-0.3%
Median transaction price	$630,000	$630,000	0.0%
Median price per sq ft	$604	$604	0.0%
Average transaction price	About $658,600	About $660,800	+0.3%
Average price per sq ft	$651	$653	+0.3%

Sources: Realila and EdgeProp’s Q2 market review.

There is no contradiction. The RPI is a hedonic, quality-adjusted measure. It attempts to distinguish actual market movement from changes in the mix of flats sold.

Raw prices can rise when Q2 contains a greater proportion of:

• Large flats
• Newer flats with long remaining leases
• High-floor units
• Centrally located homes
• Recently completed projects
• Executive flats or premium layouts

Imagine that more young four-room flats in Queenstown transact this quarter, while fewer older three-room flats in Jurong West are sold. The national average could increase simply because the basket became more expensive. Comparable flats could still be selling for slightly less than before.

That appears to be the essence of Q2: higher-value homes formed a stronger part of the transaction mix, while the underlying market softened modestly.

This distinction also explains why individual homeowners may have experiences that bear little resemblance to the national index. A seller with a recently MOP flat near an MRT station may still receive multiple bids. An owner of an older, less differentiated flat may face longer marketing periods and repeated requests to lower the price.

A note on differing transaction totals

HDB’s official Q2 count was 6,396 registered resale applications. The public transaction file contained approximately 6,194 to 6,195 records at the relevant cut-off.

The difference reflects timing, withdrawals and registration definitions. HDB’s official figure is the appropriate market-level volume measure, while the public transaction dataset remains useful for analysing towns, leases and flat types.

HDB Resale Prices by Town: There Is No Simple Mature-Town Story

The national decline was broad enough to matter, but not uniform enough to describe every town.

An early-July caveat analysis found quarterly average-price declines in 16 of 26 towns; a later snapshot counted 15. The difference largely reflected transaction updates and data cut-offs. Both indicated that price weakness affected more towns than price strength.

The largest raw average-price declines in the earlier snapshot were:

• Serangoon: -7.9%
• Marine Parade: -7.6%
• Geylang: -6.9%
• Ang Mo Kio: -5.1%
• Sembawang: -3.3%
• Yishun: -2.7%

The largest increases were:

• Central Area: +19.7%
• Clementi: +4.5%
• Jurong East: +4.0%
• Queenstown: +4.0%
• Woodlands: +3.0%

These figures should not be interpreted as like-for-like appreciation. A few expensive transactions can move a town’s average sharply, especially in locations with lower sales volume. Differences in flat size, block age, storey and lease length also affect the result.

A more stable comparison considers towns with at least 100 transactions in both Q1 and Q2 and tracks median PSF:

Town	Q1 median PSF	Q2 median PSF	QoQ change	Q2 transactions
Toa Payoh	$714	$753	+5.6%	237
Bukit Merah	$777	$809	+4.1%	255
Clementi	$631	$653	+3.5%	136
Queenstown	$973	$1,000	+2.8%	197
Sembawang	$611	$621	+1.6%	184
Jurong East	$546	$554	+1.4%	116
Choa Chu Kang	$517	$520	+0.5%	252
Hougang	$601	$604	+0.4%	318
Woodlands	$524	$525	+0.2%	474
Punggol	$699	$697	-0.4%	399
Tampines	$621	$618	-0.4%	530
Pasir Ris	$562	$559	-0.5%	174
Jurong West	$518	$515	-0.6%	376
Yishun	$571	$565	-1.0%	374
Kallang/Whampoa	$749	$741	-1.0%	183
Bedok	$595	$587	-1.2%	307
Sengkang	$637	$629	-1.3%	433
Bukit Batok	$650	$641	-1.4%	369
Bukit Panjang	$573	$560	-2.2%	187
Ang Mo Kio	$597	$581	-2.7%	241
Geylang	$646	$608	-5.9%	171

Source and methodology: HDB transaction analysis published by Realila.

The results undermine a simple “mature estates strong, non-mature estates weak” narrative. Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, Queenstown and Clementi strengthened, supported by newer or well-located projects. Yet Ang Mo Kio, Geylang and Bedok weakened despite being established towns.

Conversely, Woodlands and Choa Chu Kang were broadly stable, while Sembawang’s median PSF increased.

The more useful distinction is not merely mature versus non-mature. It is:

• Newer block versus older block
• Strong transport access versus ordinary connectivity
• Scarce layout versus readily substitutable layout
• Long remaining lease versus shorter remaining lease
• Premium project versus generic town stock

Premium towns remain in another price bracket

Official town medians placed four-room resale flats at approximately:

Town	Q2 median four-room price
Central Area	$1.194 million
Queenstown	$1.035 million
Toa Payoh	$1.019 million

Many heartland towns, by comparison, recorded four-room medians of roughly $530,000 to $680,000.

A separate four-room analysis placed median prices at about $507 psf in Jurong West and $1,176 psf in the Central Area. The Central Area’s small sample makes its quarterly movement unreliable, but the difference in absolute price level is unmistakable.

For buyers, this means “the HDB market” is increasingly an inadequate unit of analysis. Two four-room flats can belong to the same broad category while differing dramatically in lease value, location, project age and price.

Flat Type Matters: Mainstream Softness, Executive Resilience

The Q2 breakdown by flat type reveals another two-speed pattern.

Flat type	Q2 median price	Median QoQ	Q2 average price	Average QoQ
2-room	Not consistently published	—	$372,373	-0.2%
3-room	$440,000	-1.1%	$472,951	+0.1%
4-room	$630,000	+0.3%	$679,570	+0.5%
5-room	$738,000	-1.0%	$791,388	+0.3%
Executive	$919,000	+2.1%	$933,340	+1.4%

Sources: Realila’s flat-type analysis and EdgeProp’s reporting of Huttons data.

Four-room flats accounted for approximately 43.7% of transactions in the public dataset, making them the closest thing to a mainstream benchmark. Three-room flats represented about 24.1%, five-room flats 22.9%, and Executive flats 6.1%.

Several signals stand out.

Three-room flats showed buyer resistance

The three-room median declined 1.1%, although the average price edged up. That combination indicates softer pricing around the middle of the segment alongside a somewhat more expensive transaction mix.

Three-room units can appeal to singles, retirees and budget-conscious couples, but older three-room stock may face lease-related financing constraints. Buyers with alternatives can therefore negotiate more aggressively.

Four-room flats remained broadly steady

The national four-room median increased 0.3%, effectively a stable result within normal quarterly variation. Demand remains deep because the format sits near the centre of Singapore’s owner-occupier market.

But the national figure conceals enormous differences. A young four-room flat in Queenstown is not competing with an older four-room flat in Jurong West simply because both have the same room count.

Five-room medians softened

The five-room median declined 1.0%, suggesting that buyers were resisting some asking prices in the mainstream large-flat segment. Yet the average price increased, again showing that higher-end examples continued to transact.

This segment may receive fresh support from private-property right-sizers following the removal of the 15-month wait-out rule, particularly in established towns.

Executive flats behaved like scarce stock

Executive flats recorded the strongest median increase, at 2.1%. These units are generally older, but their large floor areas and discontinued formats make them difficult to replace.

Their performance demonstrates why lease age cannot be analysed in isolation. A shorter lease is a disadvantage, but scarcity, space and location can partly offset it for buyers prioritising immediate lifestyle value.

Remaining Lease Is Becoming a Stronger Price Divider

As Singapore’s HDB stock ages, remaining lease increasingly affects affordability, financing and future resale demand.

Q2 transactions were distributed as follows:

Remaining lease	Q1 transactions	Q2 transactions	Q2 share
94 years and above	274	364	5.9%
90 to under 94 years	829	834	13.5%
80 to under 90 years	987	975	15.7%
70 to under 80 years	1,185	1,187	19.2%
60 to under 70 years	1,054	1,019	16.4%
50 to under 60 years	1,332	1,385	22.4%
Below 50 years	383	431	7.0%

Source: Transaction-level lease analysis.

Activity increased at both ends. Newly MOP flats with at least 94 years remaining rose from 4.5% to 5.9% of transactions. Meanwhile, flats with fewer than 60 years remaining increased to 29.4%, from about 28.3%.

The reasons are very different.

Young flats attract buyers willing to pay for long lease runways, modern designs and lower near-term renovation or maintenance concerns. Older flats attract households seeking affordability, space or mature locations at a lease discount.

The young-flat premium is substantial

Remaining lease	Q2 median PSF	Q1–Q2 movement	Q2 median price
90 years or more	$751	+2.3%	$730,000
75–89 years	$690	Flat	$675,000
60–74 years	$549	Slight decline	$650,000
Under 60 years	$557	Slight decline	$467,000

Flats with at least 90 years remaining commanded roughly $200 psf more than those in the 60-to-74-year band—a premium of about 27% when measured against the younger category’s PSF.

The under-60-year category’s slightly higher PSF than the 60-to-74-year category does not imply superior lease economics. Different town, size and flat-type mixes affect the medians. Smaller units, for example, can carry higher PSF despite lower total prices.

Financing rules reinforce the long-term divide. CPF usage and HDB loan amounts may be prorated where the remaining lease does not cover the youngest buyer until age 95, according to HDB’s financing guidance.

That affects an older flat in two ways:

• Today’s buyer may face tighter financing or CPF limits.
• Tomorrow’s seller may encounter a smaller eligible buyer pool.

This does not make older flats automatically poor purchases. A buyer planning to stay for decades may reasonably prioritise location, space and a lower entry price. But the discount must adequately compensate for lease decay and future resale constraints.

Million-dollar sales are closely linked to young stock

Of Q2’s 491 million-dollar transactions:

• 251, or 51%, involved flats aged 15 years or less.
• 121, or almost one-quarter, involved flats only five to seven years old.
• Of the 364 transactions with at least 94 years remaining, 87—nearly 24%—sold for $1 million or more.

The record premium count is therefore not evidence that every ageing HDB flat is being pulled relentlessly upward. It is strongly connected to newer, well-located homes entering the resale market after MOP.

Price Segments Tell Two Different Stories

Most HDB resale transactions remain far below seven figures.

ERA’s Q2 transaction sample found:

Price band	Share of Q2 transactions
$250,000–$500,000	22.9%
$500,000–$750,000	48.2%
Combined $250,000–$750,000	71.1%
$1 million and above	About 7.7%

Source: ERA’s Q2 2026 HDB report.

Almost half of transactions sat between $500,000 and $750,000, while more than seven in ten were below $750,000. This is the mainstream market in which greater listing choice and sensitivity to Cash Over Valuation, or COV, are most visible.

At the premium end, however, Q2 set a record:

• 491 million-dollar transactions
• 19.5% more than Q1
• 18.3% more than Q2 2025
• Above the previous record of 480 in Q3 2025

The average million-dollar transaction price nevertheless declined 0.3%, from about $1.151 million to $1.147 million.

More premium transactions at a slightly lower average suggest that million-dollar sales are spreading beyond the most expensive central homes and clustering closer to the threshold. In other words, the category is widening geographically without necessarily accelerating at its very top.

The leading locations were:

Town	Q2 million-dollar transactions
Toa Payoh	66
Queenstown	65
Bukit Merah	64
Kallang/Whampoa	41
Ang Mo Kio	38
Clementi	30
Bedok	27
Tampines	27
Bishan	24
Central Area	20

The premium segment is the clearest rebuttal to a uniform crash narrative. Ordinary sellers are encountering more resistance, but buyers are still competing for scarce, young and well-located homes.

It also warns against treating every million-dollar transaction as proof of market-wide exuberance. Such sales represented only about 7.7% of the sample. Premium HDB flats are a meaningful segment, not a proxy for all public housing.

Why HDB Resale Prices Are Cooling

The slowdown is not driven by one shock. It reflects a combination of greater supply, credible BTO alternatives, price fatigue and more cautious household sentiment.

A much larger MOP pipeline

Approximately 6,973 flats reached MOP in 2025. Around 13,480 to 13,500 are expected to do so in 2026—almost double the previous year’s unusually low number.

Government figures cited alongside the wait-out policy change point to approximately:

Year	Flats expected to reach MOP
2025	6,973
2026	About 13,500
2027	About 15,000
2028	About 19,500

More MOP flats mean more potential resale listings and greater buyer choice. Significant 2026 supply is concentrated in Punggol, Tampines, Toa Payoh and Queenstown.

Yet MOP supply has a dual effect. It can cool the broader market by expanding listings, while simultaneously producing record prices because the new entrants carry long leases and desirable attributes.

BTO has become a stronger alternative

HDB is targeting about 19,600 BTO flats in 2026, including more than 4,000 Shorter Waiting Time units. Approximately 7,960 flats are scheduled for the October exercise across Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun.

For buyers without an urgent move-in deadline, this matters for more than supply volume:

• BTO projects are available in attractive locations.
• Shorter Waiting Time flats reduce the resale market’s speed advantage.
• Subsidised pricing can make waiting financially worthwhile.
• Prime and Plus projects offer access to valuable locations, albeit with a 10-year MOP and subsidy-recovery conditions.

A household comparing a high-COV resale flat with a well-located subsidised BTO unit now has a more credible reason to wait. That competition limits sellers’ ability to keep raising asking prices.

Buyers have become more price-sensitive

Analysts broadly agree that buyers are more selective.

Luqman Hakim of 99.co described buyers as “more selective and price-sensitive” as BTO and MOP supply increased, characterising the correction as modest rather than disorderly in 99.co’s Q2 analysis.

Christine Sun of Realion expects resistance to high COV and revised her 2026 price forecast to between -1% and +2%, citing BTO competition, increased MOP supply and employment uncertainty in Realion’s market assessment.

ERA’s Eugene Lim said buyers have more bargaining power, while realistically priced sellers need not make drastic cuts. ERA expects approximately 26,000 resale transactions for 2026, according to its Q2 commentary.

These views describe a normalising market: less fear of missing out, longer decision times and greater scrutiny of asking prices.

The 15-Month Wait-Out Rule Is Gone—What Changes Now?

From 28 July 2026, current and former private residential property owners can buy a non-subsidised HDB resale flat immediately without taking an HDB housing loan, regardless of flat size.

The Government said the restriction had “met its purpose”, according to CNA’s report on the policy change.

Introduced in September 2022, the wait-out period had prevented cash-rich private-home sellers from immediately competing with urgent and first-time HDB resale buyers.

What changed—and what did not

The policy now allows:

• Immediate purchase of a non-subsidised resale flat without an HDB loan
• Purchase regardless of flat size
• Purchase without the previous age-based four-room concession
• Pending waiver appellants to proceed with an HDB Flat Eligibility application

However, the 30-month wait remains for private-property owners who want to:

• Buy a subsidised new or resale flat
• Use HDB housing grants
• Take an HDB housing loan
• Buy a new Executive Condominium from a developer

Private property must still be disposed of within six months after completion of the HDB resale purchase. The HDB loan-to-value limit also remains at 75%, following its reduction from 80% in August 2024.

This is targeted easing, not the removal of Singapore’s wider property controls.

Large flats may receive the greatest support

PropNex expects the change to nudge demand for five-room and Executive flats. Its analysis notes that after the wait-out rule was introduced:

• Five-room transactions fell 19.3%, from 1,853 in Q3 2022 to 1,495 in Q4.
• Executive-flat transactions fell 22%, to 418.
• Neither segment subsequently surpassed its Q3 2022 volume through 1H2026.

The rule’s removal could:

• Support prices of larger resale flats
• Increase competition for Executive units
• Benefit young, central or accessible homes
• Help retirees and empty nesters right-size
• Add private resale listings when downgraders dispose of their existing homes

It is unlikely to trigger an immediate market-wide surge. The affected buyers cannot use grants or HDB loans, must comply with the six-month disposal rule, and remain only one part of total demand.

Still, its timing matters. New right-sizer demand may put a floor under the correction before nominal prices fall substantially, particularly in the large-flat segment.

Correction Versus Crash: The Historical Context

The recent decline looks very small beside both the preceding boom and Singapore’s genuine housing downturns.

Period	HDB RPI movement
2020	+5.0%
2021	+12.7%
2022	+10.4%
2023	+4.9%
2024	+9.7%
2025	+2.9%
1H2026	About -0.4%

The RPI remains approximately 55% above its Q2 2019 trough. The market is unwinding its rate of appreciation, not the accumulated price level.

Historical comparisons are even more revealing:

• The previous quarterly decline, in Q2 2019, was 0.2%.
• HDB resale prices declined 9.9% over 2014 to 2018 and were broadly flat in 2019, according to the Government’s later cooling-measures statement.
• During the Asian Financial Crisis, the RPI fell 13.5% in Q3 1998 alone and approximately 45% from mid-1996 to end-1998, based on the Straits Times’ historical cooling-measures timeline.

Against those episodes, declines of 0.1% and 0.3% are extremely shallow.

A broad crash would normally involve several conditions occurring together:

• Steep and accelerating price declines
• Falling transaction volume
• Forced sales
• Widespread mortgage stress
• A significant employment shock
• Weakness across both public and private residential markets

Those conditions are not currently visible.

Private residential prices rose 0.5% in Q2 and 1.4% in 1H2026, according to URA’s final Q2 statistics. Non-landed prices dipped 0.1%, while landed prices rose 2.5%, reinforcing the idea of segment-level divergence rather than a system-wide collapse.

The Economy Does Not Yet Point to Forced Selling

Employment uncertainty can weaken housing sentiment before it affects official data. Buyers may delay major commitments if they fear restructuring or slower wage growth.

Even so, Singapore’s labour market remained within non-recessionary norms in Q1:

Indicator	Q1 2026 reading
Total employment growth	+9,400
Overall unemployment	2.0%
Resident unemployment	2.9%
Retrenchments	3,830
Vacancies per unemployed person	1.46
MTI 2026 GDP forecast	2%–4%

Sources: Ministry of Manpower’s Q1 labour report and MTI’s GDP forecast.

Retrenchments increased slightly from 3,690 to 3,830, while MTI warned of greater external downside risks. These concerns can encourage caution, but they do not yet constitute the employment shock normally associated with forced selling.

Nicholas Mak of Mogul.sg expects the market to bottom and recover later in 2026, citing the absence of recession and continued private-home price growth in a Business Times analyst round-up.

Forecasts remain dispersed, and no single outlook should be treated as certain. What the present data establish is moderation—not the depth or duration of a major down-cycle.

What the HDB Resale Correction Means for You

If you are a first-time or urgent resale buyer

The market has become more favourable without becoming cheap.

Potential advantages include:

• More listings as MOP supply expands
• Less pressure to accept aggressive asking prices
• Greater negotiating room for three-room, five-room and older-lease stock
• Lower COV expectations and therefore less upfront cash
• Stronger BTO and Sale of Balance Flats alternatives

But waiting indefinitely for a crash carries risks. Young, premium homes are not following the national index downward, and the wait-out rule’s removal could support large-flat demand.

A practical approach is to compare the target flat with recent transactions in the same block, nearby blocks of similar age, equivalent storey bands and similar remaining leases. Town-wide averages are too crude for negotiation.

If you are selling an HDB flat

Generic price escalation is no longer a reliable strategy. According to Huttons estimates reported by EdgeProp, selling periods have lengthened to roughly two to three months.

Pricing discipline matters most when the flat has:

• Fewer than 75 years remaining
• Several nearby substitutes
• A less convenient location
• Dated renovation
• Falling town or project-level PSF comparables

Pricing power remains stronger for:

• Recently MOP flats
• High-floor units
• Homes near MRT stations and major amenities
• Scarce Executive layouts
• Premium projects in central or city-fringe locations

A 0.3% national decline does not mean every seller must cut by 0.3%. It means buyers now have enough choice to punish unrealistic asking prices more consistently.

If you plan to upgrade to private property

HDB owners still hold substantial equity because resale prices remain near their record. However, private prices rose while the HDB index softened in 1H2026.

If that divergence continues, the upgrade gap may widen even without a fall in your flat’s nominal value. Owners should therefore track both sides of the move:

• Expected net HDB sale proceeds
• Outstanding loan and CPF refund
• Private-property purchase price
• Buyer’s Stamp Duty and any applicable ABSD
• Mortgage affordability under higher stress-test rates
• Renovation and temporary accommodation costs

The wait-out policy change could also increase private resale supply as some owners right-size into HDB flats. That may create more options for upgraders even if their own sale takes longer.

If you are looking at property as an investor

HDB flats are primarily owner-occupied public housing, not unrestricted investment assets. The relevant implications are indirect.

A slower HDB wealth effect could temper future condo-upgrader demand. At the same time, private-home right-sizers may release additional condo stock and support demand for large HDB flats.

Million-dollar HDB transactions should be analysed as a concentrated premium phenomenon. They do not establish that ordinary resale flats offer the same price resilience.

If you are renting

Cooling resale prices have not produced an HDB rental downturn.

• Approved rental applications rose 4.9%, from 9,535 to 10,002.
• Rented-out stock edged up from 58,698 to 58,855 flats.
• Activity was approximately 0.6% lower year-on-year, indicating stability rather than contraction.
• Central Area median rents reached about $3,300 for three-room, $4,600 for four-room and $5,100 for five-room flats.
• ERA and Realion forecast approximately 1%–3% HDB rental growth in 2026.

The temporary occupancy-cap relaxation has also been extended to end-2028, allowing approved accommodation of up to eight unrelated persons in larger flats and private homes, according to HDB’s notice.

Added capacity may constrain rental pressure, but it does not guarantee lower rents per unit.

Seven Signals That Will Show Whether the Market Has Truly Turned

The next two quarters will be more informative than the first 0.4% decline. Buyers and owners should watch:

1. Whether Q3 records a third consecutive decline. Another fall would confirm that the correction has greater persistence, although its size would still matter.

2. Whether prices and volume fall together. Q2 volume rose despite the lower index. A simultaneous contraction would be a more concerning sign.

3. How many towns record negative PSF changes. Weakness spreading across both premium and heartland locations would indicate a broader downturn.

4. Five-room and Executive-flat demand after the policy change. A meaningful rise could show that private-home right-sizers are putting a floor under large-flat prices.

5. The performance of older leases. Flats below 60 or 75 years may be more exposed as buyers become sensitive to financing and future resale constraints.

6. The October BTO response. Strong application rates in Bedok, Geylang and Toa Payoh would confirm that BTO is diverting demand from resale.

7. Employment and financial stress. Resident unemployment, retrenchments and mortgage arrears matter more to the crash case than small quarterly RPI movements.

COV frequency, time on market, actual MOP listings and the average price of million-dollar transactions will add further clues.

Food for Thought

• If a national index is down only 0.4%, but your target town is down several percentage points, which number should guide your offer?

• Is a newer flat at a 27% PSF premium better value than an older flat in the same broad area, once financing and future resale demand are considered?

• Would you prefer a centrally located older home with a lower total price, or a younger suburban flat with a longer financial runway?

• If million-dollar sales keep rising while their average price falls, does that signal renewed exuberance—or simply an expanding definition of “premium”?

• Could the removal of the 15-month wait-out rule stabilise large-flat prices before first-time buyers see the deeper correction they are waiting for?

The Market Has Changed, but It Has Not Broken

The evidence supports three conclusions. The broad-based boom has turned: two negative quarters, weaker year-on-year volume, longer selling periods and softer mainstream medians represent a real regime change. The market has not crashed: prices remain near their record, Q2 volume increased, employment is resilient and premium transactions reached a new high. Most importantly, the national average is becoming less useful as young and old leases, ordinary and scarce layouts, and heartland and premium projects move differently.

The HDB resale market is now selective and lease-sensitive. Ordinary sellers face greater resistance, while young, central and space-rich flats retain meaningful pricing power. Greater MOP and BTO supply should keep price growth restrained, but new demand from private-home right-sizers may limit the depth of the correction.