HDB Prices Are Cooling—So Why Are Million-Dollar Deals Still Breaking Records?

Singapore’s HDB resale prices are cooling, yet million-dollar flat sales are breaking records. In Q2 2026, the HDB Resale Price Index fell 0.3% quarter on quarter, even as 491 flats sold for at least S$1 million—the highest quarterly count on record. It sounds like a contradiction. It is really evidence that Singapore no longer has one uniform HDB resale market, but a two-speed market shaped by flat size, age, floor, location and remaining lease.

The distinction matters whether you are buying your first home, upgrading to a larger flat or selling a unit near an MRT station. A record transaction at Pinnacle@Duxton does not automatically lift the value of an older flat in Woodlands. Nor does a falling national index mean that a newly MOP unit in Bidadari has suddenly become easy to secure.

The premium end is expanding because more young, scarce and well-located flats can now be resold. Meanwhile, price momentum is weakening across the much larger mainstream market. Both can happen at the same time—and the Q2 2026 data shows exactly how.

HDB Resale Prices in Q2 2026: The Apparent Contradiction

According to HDB’s Q2 2026 public housing data, the Resale Price Index, or RPI, declined from 203.4 in Q1 to 202.8 in Q2. This followed a 0.1% decline in the previous quarter, producing the first pair of consecutive quarterly falls since 2019.

Official resale volume reached 6,396 transactions, up only 1.8% from Q1 and down 9.9% from Q2 2025. Yet the million-dollar segment moved in the opposite direction.

Indicator	Q2 2026 result	Comparison
HDB Resale Price Index	202.8	-0.3% QoQ; unchanged YoY
Q1 2026 RPI	203.4	-0.1% QoQ
First-half price movement	-0.4%	Versus +2.5% in 1H2025
Official resale volume	6,396	+1.8% QoQ; -9.9% YoY
1H2026 resale volume	12,681	-7.4% YoY
Million-dollar sales	491	+19.5% QoQ; +18.3% YoY
Million-dollar share	7.7%	Up from 6.5% in Q1
Average price of S$1m+ flats	S$1,147,216	-0.3% QoQ
Rental approvals	10,002	+4.9% QoQ

Sources: HDB, ERA and EdgeProp.

The critical figure is 7.7%. Million-dollar flats made up fewer than one in 13 transactions. Put another way, approximately 92.3% of all Q2 resale deals remained below S$1 million.

A record within a small upper tail does not describe what is happening to the other 92.3% of the market.

There is another revealing detail: although the number of million-dollar deals increased, their average transacted price slipped from S$1,150,651 in Q1 to S$1,147,216 in Q2. The premium segment produced more seven-figure transactions, but its typical deal did not become more expensive.

The quarter is therefore better understood as more premium-quality flats changing hands, not an indiscriminate surge in HDB resale prices.

Why a Falling HDB Price Index Can Coexist With More Million-Dollar Flats

The apparent contradiction starts to disappear once we recognise that the HDB RPI and the million-dollar transaction count measure different things.

The index measures quality-adjusted price movement

Since Q4 2014, HDB’s RPI has used a stratified hedonic regression methodology. As described in the RPI methodology note and the SingStat dataset documentation, the index adjusts for differences in transacted-flat characteristics and combines price movements using fixed weights.

In plain language, it tries to answer:

After accounting for differences between the flats sold in each quarter, are comparable flats becoming more or less expensive?

A raw count of million-dollar flats asks a much simpler question:

How many registered transactions reached or exceeded a fixed S$1 million threshold?

That threshold does not adjust for inflation, floor area, location, lease length or project quality. A sale at S$999,999 is excluded; one at exactly S$1 million is included. If more flats cluster around the threshold and cross it, the record count can rise even when like-for-like market prices are flat or falling.

This also explains why raw averages can move differently from the index. Huttons’ caveat-based figures, cited by EdgeProp, showed that the average transaction price across flat types rose 0.4% to S$661,196 in Q2. The quality-adjusted RPI nevertheless declined 0.3%.

The quarter contained a slightly more expensive mix of homes. That does not necessarily mean an equivalent flat appreciated.

A simple example of the composition effect

Imagine that one quarter has many older three-room transactions and relatively few new five-room transactions. In the next quarter, the balance changes: more large, young flats are sold.

The raw average could rise because the second group naturally costs more. A quality-adjusted index could still fall if comparable three-room and five-room units each transacted for slightly less than before.

That is essentially the statistical issue behind Q2’s headlines. The type of flats entering the market changed, especially as newly MOP stock appeared in premium precincts.

“Million-dollar” is increasingly a category, not a market verdict

The first known million-dollar HDB resale transaction occurred in July 2012. According to transaction counts compiled by market agencies, Singapore then recorded:

Period	Million-dollar HDB transactions
2023	470
2024	Approximately 1,035
2025	Approximately 1,593–1,594
Q2 2026 alone	491
June 2026 alone	188

Minor one-transaction differences in published annual totals can arise from retrieval dates and later data revisions. The direction is nonetheless unmistakable: seven-figure HDB transactions have become less rare.

But the threshold has also remained fixed while the wider market has experienced years of cumulative appreciation. HDB’s RPI rose by approximately 55% from its Q2 2019 trough to Q2 2026. More flats will naturally approach a nominal S$1 million line after such a large market-wide rise.

“Record count” should therefore not be read as “record acceleration.”

The Two-Speed HDB Resale Market in One Picture

The premium market and mainstream market differ across several dimensions.

Factor	Mainstream resale market	Premium resale tail
Typical location	Large suburban towns	Central, city-fringe or scarce premium precincts
Common price level	Often S$500,000–S$700,000	S$1 million and above
Lease profile	Broad mix of ages	Disproportionately young, long-lease flats
Main value driver	Affordability and utility	Scarcity, connectivity, design, views and lease
Floor-area effect	Price constrained by household budget	Large units can cross S$1m even at moderate PSF
Floor effect	Important but variable	High floors can sharply amplify scarcity premiums
Q2 direction	Broad cooling and price resistance	More transactions, but slightly lower average price

ERA key executive officer Eugene Lim described the influx of newly MOP stock as producing a “more bifurcated resale landscape.” That phrase captures the central story: the same increase in eligible resale supply has different effects depending on where the flats are located.

In ordinary locations, extra supply gives buyers more alternatives and restrains asking prices. In Bidadari, Dawson, Clementi or Bedok South, it releases young, long-lease homes in desirable precincts into a buyer pool already willing to pay for scarcity.

Flat Size: Why Four-Room Flats Now Lead the Million-Dollar Segment

A common image of the million-dollar HDB flat is a huge executive apartment or maisonette. Such transactions still occur, but they no longer dominate the premium market.

Based on the sum of PropNex’s April, May and June breakdowns, four-room units supplied the largest share of Q2’s 491 million-dollar transactions.

Premium flat type	Q2 deals	Share of S$1m+ market
4-room	212	43.2%
5-room	183	37.3%
Executive	93	18.9%
Terrace or multi-generation	3	0.6%
Total	491	100%

Central four-room flats win through PSF

A four-room flat is not exceptionally large by HDB standards. It crosses S$1 million when its price per square foot is exceptionally high.

That is increasingly possible at projects such as Pinnacle@Duxton, SkyVille@Dawson, SkyTerrace@Dawson and Bidadari developments. Buyers are paying for a combination of:

• Central or city-fringe location
• MRT and employment-centre accessibility
• Long remaining lease
• Modern layouts and project design
• High floors or open views
• Limited competing supply within the same precinct

A smaller unit can therefore carry a higher total price than a larger suburban flat because every square foot is valued more highly.

Executive flats win through total floor area

The economic logic is different for executive flats in Woodlands, Hougang, Bukit Panjang and other suburban areas. Their PSF can be well below that of a central four-room unit, but their much larger floor area pushes the total consideration above S$1 million.

For illustration:

• A 96 sq m central four-room flat can reach S$1.5 million at an extremely high PSF.
• A 145 sq m executive flat can cross S$1 million at a much more moderate PSF.
• Both count equally in the million-dollar statistics despite representing very different purchases.

This is why buyers should always compare both total price and PSF. The S$1 million label alone hides whether the buyer is paying mainly for space, location, lease, elevation or project scarcity.

Most flat types were not booming in Q2

Caveat-based average prices cited by Huttons show broadly stable movements across most types.

Flat type	Q1 2026 average	Q2 2026 average	QoQ
2-room	S$373,136	S$372,373	-0.2%
3-room	S$472,367	S$472,951	+0.1%
4-room	S$675,991	S$679,570	+0.5%
5-room	S$788,987	S$791,388	+0.3%
Executive or multi-generation	S$920,567	S$933,340	+1.4%
All types	S$658,795	S$661,196	+0.4%

These raw averages are not substitutes for the quality-adjusted RPI. They do, however, reinforce the point that Q2 was characterised by modest changes—not a new market-wide boom.

Location: The Most Powerful Divide in HDB Resale Prices

Million-dollar HDB transactions are geographically concentrated. In Q2, Toa Payoh, Queenstown and Bukit Merah generated 195 deals, or 39.7% of the record total.

Town	S$1m+ deals	Share of 491
Toa Payoh	66	13.4%
Queenstown	65	13.2%
Bukit Merah	64	13.0%
Kallang/Whampoa	41	8.4%
Ang Mo Kio	38	7.7%
Clementi	30	6.1%
Bedok	27	5.5%
Tampines	27	5.5%
Bishan	24	4.9%
Central Area	20	4.1%
All other towns	89	18.1%

The top five towns supplied about 56% of all million-dollar transactions. Approximately 89.4% of the premium deals remained in traditionally mature towns.

This concentration explains how national price momentum can weaken while a handful of projects repeatedly set records.

Central PSF can be more than double suburban PSF

Transaction-level Q2 analysis of four-room flats shows the magnitude of the location gap. Published median prices per square metre have been converted below to approximate PSF figures.

Four-room market	Median S$/sqm	Approx. S$/sq ft	Q2 transactions
Central Area	12,660	1,176	24
Queenstown	11,485	1,067	76
Toa Payoh	11,018	1,024	90
Bukit Merah	10,200	948	109
Kallang/Whampoa	10,108	939	73
Yishun	5,815	540	192
Woodlands	5,585	519	216
Choa Chu Kang	5,549	515	139
Jurong West	5,459	507	152

Source: Q2 town analysis using HDB transaction data.

The Central Area’s four-room median PSF was more than twice Jurong West’s. HDB’s official median data also placed four-room medians at around S$1 million in Queenstown and Toa Payoh for a second quarter, while the Central Area’s published median returned to nearly S$1.2 million. The island-wide four-room median was around S$630,000, according to ERA’s Q2 commentary.

There is no meaningful contradiction between a S$1.2 million median in a small central segment and cooling across the national stock. They are different layers of the same market.

Volume centres and premium centres are not the same

Jurong West, Punggol, Sengkang, Tampines and Woodlands were the five highest-volume towns in Q2. Together, they represented 35.7% of resale transactions. Only Tampines was also among the leading million-dollar markets.

This is one of the clearest signs of the two-speed structure:

• Most transactions take place in large suburban markets.
• Most premium headlines emerge from a smaller set of mature or centrally located estates.
• The record tail has high visibility but limited weight in the national transaction base.

Age and Remaining Lease: Why Newly MOP Flats Punch Above Their Weight

Young flats were disproportionately represented among Q2’s premium transactions.

Of the 491 million-dollar deals:

• 251 transactions, or 51%, involved flats aged 15 years or less.
• 121 transactions, or 24.6%, involved flats only five to seven years old.
• Toa Payoh alone recorded 38 million-dollar deals involving five-to-seven-year-old four- and five-room flats, concentrated in Alkaff CourtView and Alkaff LakeView.
• Of 364 Q2 transactions with at least 94 years of lease remaining, 87—or 23.9%—sold for S$1 million or more.

The 94-plus-year group represented only 5.9% of the broader transaction dataset but supplied almost 18% of all million-dollar sales, according to PropNex executive director Wong Siew Ying.

That is a remarkable overrepresentation.

More premium stock is becoming eligible for resale

Around 13,480 flats are expected to reach their Minimum Occupation Period in 2026, approximately 69% more than the roughly 8,000 flats in 2025.

Town	Flats reaching MOP in 2026	Share
Punggol	3,222	23.9%
Queenstown	2,405	17.8%
Tampines	2,133	15.8%
Toa Payoh	1,594	11.8%
Bedok	1,440	10.7%
All other towns	2,686	19.9%
Total	13,480	100%

This supply increase works in two directions.

In Punggol and other high-volume locations, more eligible flats can make sellers compete harder for buyers. In Queenstown, Toa Payoh and selected parts of Bedok or Tampines, newly eligible flats may immediately qualify for the premium tier because they combine location with nearly full leases.

The record is therefore partly a stock-flow story: there are more flats with the attributes required to command seven-figure prices, and more owners are now legally able to sell them.

The overall lease distribution remains broad

Most Q2 transactions were not newly MOP flats. The biggest remaining-lease group was 50 to under 60 years.

Remaining lease	Q2 transactions	Q2 share	Q1 share
94 years and above	364	5.9%	4.5%
90 to under 94 years	834	13.5%	13.7%
80 to under 90 years	975	15.7%	16.3%
70 to under 80 years	1,187	19.2%	19.6%
60 to under 70 years	1,019	16.4%	17.4%
50 to under 60 years	1,385	22.4%	22.0%
Under 50 years	431	7.0%	6.3%

The distribution reveals two different forms of demand.

Lease-value demand comes from households prioritising a long ownership runway, easier financing, newer common areas and contemporary layouts. Newly MOP flats serve this group particularly well.

Utility-value demand comes from buyers who accept a shorter remaining lease in exchange for more space, an established location, distinctive architecture or immediate lifestyle benefits. These buyers may be older, more cash-rich or less concerned about preserving value over many decades.

Short leases can narrow the financed buyer pool

Remaining lease affects more than future resale sentiment.

Under HDB housing-loan rules, the maximum loan-to-value ratio is normally 75% of the lower of the purchase price or valuation. If the remaining lease does not cover the youngest applicant to age 95, the maximum loan can be prorated.

The flat must have more than 20 years of lease remaining. The maximum HDB loan tenure is also constrained by the shortest applicable limit, including 25 years, the applicants’ age-based limit and the remaining lease minus 20 years.

CPF’s lease-coverage rules similarly provide for prorated CPF usage when the lease does not cover the youngest buyer to age 95.

As leases shorten:

• Fewer buyers can maximise CPF usage.
• Loan quantum may become more restrictive.
• More cash or non-CPF funding may be required.
• The future resale pool can narrow.

This does not make every old flat unattractive. It means its value depends increasingly on utility today rather than on a long resale runway.

Floor Level: A Premium Amplifier, Not a Universal Rule

High floors often command premiums for views, privacy, light and reduced exposure to road noise. But Q2’s transactions show that elevation is only one part of the equation.

Example	Floor	Size	Price	PSF	Main value combination
City Vue @ Henderson five-room, April	46–48	113 sq m	S$1.728m	S$1,421	Height, long lease and centrality
Pinnacle@Duxton five-room, May	43–45	105 sq m	S$1.630m	S$1,442	Scarce high-rise central product
Moh Guan Terrace adjoined flat, May	1–3	150 sq m	S$1.530m	S$948	Exceptional size and heritage location
SkyTerrace@Dawson loft, June	4–6	122 sq m	S$1.650m	S$1,256	Scarce loft format and iconic project
Pinnacle@Duxton four-room, May	40–42	96 sq m	S$1.550m	S$1,500	High floor and central scarcity

Sources: PropNex’s monthly analyses for April, May and June.

The City Vue @ Henderson deal combined nearly every premium attribute: a very high floor, long remaining lease, central accessibility and a larger five-room layout. The Pinnacle four-room transaction achieved a much higher PSF despite its smaller area, illustrating how buyers capitalise views and location into each square foot.

But Moh Guan Terrace demonstrates why “high floor” is not a complete explanation. The 150 sq m adjoined flat was on floors 1–3 and had only around 45 years remaining, yet sold for S$1.53 million. Its PSF was far below the Pinnacle records, but its size and Tiong Bahru setting pushed the total above S$1 million.

Similarly, the low-floor SkyTerrace@Dawson loft commanded S$1.65 million because loft units are scarce and the project is distinctive.

The more accurate hierarchy is:

• High floor amplifies an already attractive unit.
• Exceptional size can compensate for lower PSF.
• Rare layouts can outweigh elevation.
• Project and location scarcity can dominate several weaker attributes.

This is why a buyer should not apply a high-floor project record directly to an ordinary low-floor unit in the same town—or even the same street.

The Broader Distribution Still Shows Cooling

Record transactions attract attention because they are unusual. Distribution data tells us what most households are actually buying.

Price band	April share	May share	June share
Below S$500,000	22.5%	23.0%	23.2%
S$500,000 to under S$700,000	42.6%	40.2%	40.7%
S$700,000 to under S$1 million	27.8%	29.0%	27.3%
S$1 million and above	7.1%	7.7%	8.8%

Even in June, when a monthly record of 188 million-dollar deals was set, almost two-thirds of transactions remained below S$700,000.

Across the quarter, the S$500,000-to-under-S$700,000 band remained the market’s centre of gravity. The below-S$500,000 group also edged upwards from 22.5% in April to 23.2% in June.

Weakness was geographically broad

According to agency analyses of Q2 caveats:

• 15 of 26 HDB towns recorded quarterly average-price contractions.
• The declines ranged from 0.1% to 7.9%.
• Serangoon fell 7.9%.
• Marine Parade fell 7.6%.
• Geylang fell 6.9%.
• Marine Parade’s average price declined by more than 10% over the first half of 2026.

Marine Parade’s weakness was attributed partly to ageing leases and buyer substitution towards newer alternatives such as Bedok South Horizon. That is the lease and MOP mechanism operating within neighbouring eastern markets: older stock faces greater financing and longevity concerns just as newer stock becomes available nearby.

Two- and three-room resale volumes also fell 22.3% and 12.3% year on year, respectively. Market analysts linked this partly to increased competition from two-room Flexi and other BTO options.

The evidence points to price resistance and buyer selectivity—not a universal collapse, but no broad acceleration either.

Cooling After a Huge Post-Pandemic Rise

The word “cooling” needs context. HDB resale prices remain near record levels after a substantial post-pandemic climb.

Period	RPI movement
2020	+5.0%
2021	+12.7%
2022	+10.4%
2023	+4.9%
2024	+9.7%
2025	+2.9%
Q1 2026	-0.1% QoQ
Q2 2026	-0.3% QoQ

Quarterly momentum weakened from +2.7% in Q3 2024 through +2.6%, +1.6%, +0.9%, +0.4%, 0%, -0.1% and finally -0.3% in Q2 2026.

This sequence suggests deceleration rather than a sudden break. Prices have gone from rapid gains, to slower gains, to stagnation, and then to modest declines.

The RPI remains about 55% above its Q2 2019 trough. For buyers who remember pre-pandemic pricing, today’s “cool” market may still feel expensive. For sellers anchoring expectations to the sharp growth of 2021 or 2022, however, the change in bargaining conditions is meaningful.

Christine Sun of Realion/OrangeTee linked the broader decline to BTO competition, macroeconomic uncertainty and a weaker hiring outlook. Her “flight to affordability” thesis suggests that price-sensitive households are increasingly switching from costly attractive-location resale flats to BTO launches or older resale options.

ERA’s Eugene Lim similarly observed that buyer caution and price resistance are becoming more evident. In his assessment, buyers now have more bargaining power, although realistic sellers can still transact without steep discounts.

Supply, Not Just Sentiment, Is Cooling the Mainstream Market

HDB plans to launch around 19,600 BTO flats in 2026, according to its annual supply announcement.

The programme includes:

• 4,692 BTO flats and 4,320 Sale of Balance Flats offered in February
• 6,952 BTO flats offered in June
• Approximately 7,960 BTO flats planned for October
• More than 2,500 June flats with waiting times of around three years or less
• Capacity to offer more than 55,000 flats between 2025 and 2027 if needed

Sources: HDB’s February exercise and shorter-waiting-time supply announcement.

More BTO, SBF and shorter-waiting-time choices reduce the urgency premium that characterised the pandemic-disrupted market. A household able to wait around three years has a more credible alternative to paying a resale seller’s ambitious asking price.

At the same time, the 13,480 flats reaching MOP add resale choices. Supply is therefore expanding at both ends of the public-housing pathway:

1. New subsidised flats compete with resale homes for eligible buyers.
2. Newly MOP flats compete with existing resale listings.
3. Premium newly MOP flats expand the pool capable of crossing S$1 million.
4. Ordinary resale sellers face a more price-sensitive buyer pool.

This combination naturally creates segmentation.

What the Million-Dollar Buyers Actually Look Like

It is tempting to assume that every seven-figure HDB buyer is speculating. HDB’s regulatory framework and available buyer-profile evidence suggest a more varied picture.

A PropNex survey covering salespersons involved in 110 million-dollar transactions during 2025 found that:

• Buyers aged 30–49 accounted for approximately 71% of surveyed deals.
• Around four in ten buyers aged 30–39 were purchasing their first home.
• Some 46.3% of buyers aged 40–49 were upgrading from a smaller HDB flat.
• Among buyers aged 60 or older, 71.4% were reportedly replacing a private home, generally after right-sizing.
• Approximately 69.1% paid no cash over valuation, or COV.
• Around 5.5% paid more than S$100,000 in COV.

The survey was not a complete census of all transactions, so its findings should not be generalised too precisely. It nevertheless shows that premium buyers include:

• First-time owner-occupiers prioritising location
• HDB households upgrading for space
• Private-home owners right-sizing for retirement
• Buyers exchanging private facilities for a more central or practical home

A million-dollar transaction can therefore reflect a household consumption decision rather than a conventional investment thesis.

HDB flats remain subject to owner-occupation, eligibility and Minimum Occupation Period rules. Standard and older unclassified flats generally carry a five-year MOP, while Plus and Prime flats have a ten-year MOP. Plus and Prime owners cannot rent out the whole flat even after MOP and face subsidy recovery upon resale, under HDB’s post-purchase conditions and subsidy-recovery framework.

These are homes first, even when they carry seven-figure values.

What the Two-Speed Market Means for Buyers and Sellers

For mainstream resale buyers

The falling RPI and broad town-level contractions provide more negotiating room than buyers had during the post-pandemic seller’s market.

Useful comparisons should match:

• Town and immediate precinct
• Block or nearby blocks
• Flat type and model
• Floor area
• Storey range
• Remaining lease
• Renovation condition
• MRT distance and nearby amenities

A record at Dawson should not shape an offer for an older Queenstown flat merely because both use the same town label. Even within one project, a high-floor view-facing unit can differ substantially from a low-floor unit facing a road or neighbouring block.

Buyers should also compare resale options against current BTO and SBF supply. The relevant trade-off is not simply “new versus old,” but:

• Time to move in
• Subsidy and eligibility
• Location
• Renovation cost
• Lease length
• Cash and CPF requirements
• Flexibility during MOP

For premium-flat buyers

Competition can remain intense for newly MOP, high-floor, MRT-adjacent or architecturally distinctive units. The national cooling trend does not guarantee a discount on a genuinely scarce home.

Premium buyers should separate four concepts:

1. Total price: The amount paid for the whole flat.
2. PSF: The price intensity applied to its area.
3. Valuation: The benchmark affecting financing and potential COV.
4. Replacement scarcity: How difficult it would be to find a close substitute.

A S$1.1 million executive flat at S$700 PSF is not economically equivalent to a S$1.5 million four-room unit at S$1,500 PSF. The first purchase is heavily about space; the second capitalises centrality, floor and scarcity into each square foot.

For sellers

Sellers should not interpret record volume as permission for arbitrary price increases. Q2’s average million-dollar transaction price fell slightly even while deal count rose.

That indicates resistance at the top end. More sales can happen because more qualifying stock is available—not because each unit has become more valuable.

Sellers of older, low-floor or less-connected homes should avoid benchmarking against rare project records. Unrealistic pricing raises the risk of a stale listing, especially when buyers have more BTO and resale alternatives.

Sellers of newly MOP units in premium locations retain a stronger position, but unit-specific evidence still matters. A buyer may pay for a view or long lease; they are less likely to pay simply because a neighbouring block once produced a record.

Will the Removal of the 15-Month Wait-Out Rule Reheat the Market?

On 28 July 2026, after the end of Q2, the government removed the 15-month wait-out period for private residential property owners and former owners seeking to purchase a non-subsidised HDB resale flat without an HDB loan.

The timing is crucial: the rule change cannot explain Q2’s record of 491 million-dollar deals.

According to CNA’s report:

• The removal took effect immediately.
• A current private-property owner must dispose of the Singapore or overseas private property within six months after completing the HDB purchase.
• The 30-month wait remains for households seeking a subsidised flat, CPF housing grants, an HDB loan or a new executive condominium.
• Pending wait-out appeals no longer need to be resolved before a household applies for an HFE letter.

The 15-month measure was introduced in September 2022 amid pandemic-related construction disruption, delayed BTO supply, smaller household sizes and low interest rates. Its removal reflects a market that policymakers now assess as better balanced.

The likely effect is concentrated, not universal

Former private-home owners may have substantial sale proceeds and a preference for:

• Five-room or executive flats
• Central and city-fringe locations
• Larger units suitable for right-sizing
• High-floor units with privacy or views
• Homes near adult children and established amenities

PropNex chief executive Kelvin Fong said the change could “nudge demand for larger resale flats.” OrangeTee similarly expects stronger interest in large homes but does not anticipate a sharp rise in the entire index because premium sales remain a minority and overall supply is ample.

The most plausible pathway is therefore:

The policy may widen the two-speed gap rather than reverse it.

There could also be a rental effect. Private homeowners previously caught by the wait-out rule sometimes needed interim accommodation. Removing that period may reduce temporary rental demand from this group. Q2 HDB rental approvals rose 4.9% quarter on quarter to 10,002 but were slightly below the 10,066 approvals recorded a year earlier.

The Near-Term Outlook: Segmentation Over a Uniform Boom or Bust

Agency forecasts vary, but all sit far below the double-digit growth rates seen earlier in the post-pandemic cycle.

Agency	2026 resale-price forecast	Resale-volume forecast
Huttons	-2% to +2%	22,000–26,000
Realion/OrangeTee	-1% to +2%	Not specified in cited report
Singapore Realtors Inc	+0.5% to +2%	25,000–26,000
PropNex	About +1%	26,000–27,000
ERA	Gradual repricing	About 26,000

The upside risk is concentrated demand from private-property right-sizers following removal of the wait-out rule. Larger five-room and executive units may benefit most.

The main cooling forces remain substantial:

• Economic and employment uncertainty
• Buyer resistance after an approximately 55% rise since Q2 2019
• Around 19,600 BTO flats planned for 2026
• More SBF and shorter-waiting-time supply
• Approximately 13,480 flats reaching MOP
• Financing sensitivity for older flats
• A maximum HDB-loan LTV of 75%, reduced from 80% for relevant applications from 20 August 2024
• Cash requirements where COV is involved

The most likely outcome is not an island-wide rise or fall of equal intensity. It is continued divergence:

• Ordinary flats may remain flat or soften.
• Older flats may face greater lease-related price sensitivity.
• Newly MOP flats will attract buyers seeking long leases and modern layouts.
• Large suburban units may cross S$1 million through floor area.
• Central, high-floor or iconic homes may continue setting PSF records.
• Million-dollar transaction counts may rise even without stronger average premium prices.

Food for Thought

• If a flat crosses S$1 million mainly because it is exceptionally large, should it be viewed in the same way as a smaller unit trading at S$1,500 PSF?

• How much of a newly MOP flat’s premium reflects genuine long-term value—and how much reflects buyers’ willingness to avoid construction waits and renovation uncertainty?

• When a central flat has a short remaining lease but an irreplaceable location, should buyers prioritise utility over future resale value?

• Will the removal of the 15-month wait-out rule mainly improve housing mobility, or will it establish a stronger price floor for large premium flats?

• As Plus and Prime flats eventually enter the resale market under tighter occupation and subsidy-recovery rules, will buyers value them like today’s premium HDB projects?