Imagine this: You've spent decades building equity in your private condominium, watching your children grow up and eventually leave the nest. Now in your 60s, you're ready to downsize—to trade that sprawling condo for a cozy, retirement-friendly HDB flat near your grandchildren. But there's a catch. Even after selling your private property, you're forced to wait 15 months before you can purchase that resale flat. For some, this means renting temporarily, burning through retirement savings, or delaying crucial life transitions.
This frustrating scenario has become increasingly common since September 2022, when the Singapore government introduced the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners seeking to downgrade to HDB resale flats. But now, one of Singapore's largest real estate agencies is calling for its abolition. PropNex's controversial proposal to scrap this cooling measure has ignited fierce debate about whether the policy has outlived its purpose—and whether removing it could flood the HDB resale market with pent-up demand from ageing condo owners.
The 15-Month Wait-Out Period: Origins and Rationale
To understand why this proposal matters, we need to rewind to September 30, 2022. Property prices were surging, HDB resale flats were hitting record highs month after month, and the government was scrambling to cool an overheating market. Enter the 15-month wait-out period—a temporary measure announced alongside other cooling interventions including tighter borrowing limits and a reduced Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio for HDB loans from 85% to 80%.
Why Was It Implemented?
The Housing & Development Board (HDB) was explicit about the policy's objectives:
- Prioritise public housing for those with genuine, urgent needs—particularly first-time buyers and young families
- Temper demand from financially well-off downgraders who could potentially outbid more vulnerable buyer segments
- Prevent speculative activity and ensure HDB flats remained accessible as public housing rather than investment vehicles
According to HDB, this was always framed as a temporary measure subject to review "depending on overall demand and market changes." The policy carved out exceptions for seniors aged 55 and above purchasing 4-room or smaller resale flats, acknowledging that older downgraders faced unique circumstances.
The Appeal Safety Valve
Since 2022, HDB has processed approximately 1,800 appeals annually for waivers of the wait-out period. This suggests the policy has maintained some flexibility, though the appeals process itself creates administrative burden and uncertainty for applicants.
| Policy Component | Details |
|---|---|
| Implementation Date | September 30, 2022 |
| Wait Duration | 15 months from private property sale completion |
| Exceptions | Seniors 55+ buying 4-room or smaller flats |
| Annual Appeals Processed | ~1,800 |
| Stated Duration | Temporary, subject to review |
PropNex's Bold Proposal: The Case for Abolition
Fast forward to early 2026. PropNex, Singapore's largest listed real estate agency, has placed the abolition of the 15-month wait-out period squarely on its Budget 2026 wishlist. Their argument rests on a simple premise: the cooling measures have worked, and the policy is now doing more harm than good.
PropNex's Core Arguments
PropNex contends that several market developments justify scrapping the wait-out period entirely:
The HDB resale market has demonstrably cooled
The numbers tell a compelling story. The HDB Resale Price Index stood at 203.6 in Q4 2025—virtually unchanged from the previous quarter. This flat quarter-on-quarter reading was a rare occurrence, the first since early 2025. For the full year 2025, price appreciation registered just 2.9%—the slowest growth rate recorded since 2019.
Transaction volumes have contracted significantly
Resale activity has slowed markedly. Total transactions in 2025 fell 9.7% year-on-year to 26,169 units, down from approximately 29,000 units in 2024. This suggests demand moderation rather than overheating.
The policy creates unnecessary friction for legitimate downgraders
PropNex emphasizes that the wait-out period particularly disadvantages ageing condo owners seeking retirement-friendly HDB living. These aren't speculative investors—they're seniors looking to right-size their housing, unlock capital for retirement, and age in place within their communities.
Market liquidity would improve with removal
By eliminating artificial delays, PropNex argues that housing transitions would become more efficient, allowing seniors to deploy their capital more effectively and reducing the rental demand created by displaced downgraders.
Beyond the Wait-Out Period: PropNex's Broader Agenda
The agency's Budget 2026 recommendations extend to other cooling measures:
| Proposal | Rationale |
|---|---|
| Abolish 15-month wait-out period | Market has cooled; policy now hinders legitimate downgrading |
| Reduce ABSD to 30% for properties above S$10 million | Stimulate ultra-luxury segment without affecting mass market |
| Allow ABSD deferral for HDB upgraders | Ease cash flow burden until existing flat is sold |
Current Market Reality: Has the HDB Resale Market Really Cooled?
PropNex's argument hinges on the assertion that cooling measures have successfully moderated the market. But a closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture—one where overall deceleration coexists with persistent pockets of strength and underlying supply constraints.
Price Trends: Deceleration, Not Decline
The headline figures support the cooling narrative:
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Price Growth | ~4.9% | 2.9% | -2.0 p.p. |
| Total Resale Transactions | ~29,000 | 26,169 | -9.7% |
| Q4 Resale Price Index | 203.5 | 203.6 | +0.05% |
Source: HDB Resale Price Index, ERA Research, PropNex market reports
However, January 2026 saw a 1.2% month-on-month uptick to 209.7, suggesting that momentum hasn't entirely dissipated.
The Million-Dollar Flat Phenomenon
Here's where the cooling narrative gets complicated. Despite overall market moderation, million-dollar HDB transactions hit a record high of 1,594 units in 2025—representing approximately 6.1% of total market volume. This segmentation indicates that while the broad market has stabilized, premium flats in desirable locations continue commanding exceptional prices.
| Million-Dollar HDB Transactions | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Number of Transactions | ~1,300 | 1,594 |
| Share of Total Market | ~4.5% | 6.1% |
This suggests that financially capable buyers—including potential downgraders from private property—remain active in specific market segments. The wait-out period may be suppressing some demand, but it hasn't eliminated the purchasing power that originally concerned policymakers.
Supply Constraints: The Hidden Pressure Point
Perhaps the strongest counterargument to PropNex's proposal lies in supply constraints rather than demand dynamics. The HDB resale market faces a structural shortage of newer flats:
| Year | MOP-Eligible Flats Entering Resale Market |
|---|---|
| 2024 | ~8,500 |
| 2025 | 6,973 (lowest since 2014) |
| 2026 (projected) | 13,484 |
The 2025 figure of 6,973 MOP-eligible flats represents the lowest supply of newer resale units in over a decade. This bottleneck has helped sustain prices despite demand moderation. While 2026's projected 13,484 MOP flats should alleviate some pressure, the historical volatility in supply creates uncertainty about market balance.
HDB's BTO Response
The government isn't sitting idle on supply. HDB has committed to launching approximately 19,600 BTO flats in 2026, with over 55,000 flats promised between 2025 and 2027. However, BTO flats involve construction delays of 3-4 years, meaning immediate resale market supply remains constrained regardless of launch volumes.
The Demographic Dimension: Ageing Condo Owners and Retirement Housing
PropNex's proposal specifically highlights ageing condo owners seeking retirement-friendly HDB living—a demographic that deserves closer examination. Who are these downgraders, and what would their market entry mean?
The Retirement Downsizing Wave
Singapore's property market is approaching a significant demographic transition. Many private property owners who purchased during the 1990s and 2000s property booms are now entering their 60s and 70s. These cohorts face several converging pressures:
- Empty nest syndrome: Children have established independent households
- Maintenance burden: Larger private properties become physically and financially taxing to maintain
- Capital unlocking: Downsizing frees equity for retirement income, healthcare, and legacy planning
- Proximity needs: Desire to live near adult children and grandchildren, often in established HDB neighborhoods
Financial Profile of Potential Downgraders
Private property owners who have held their assets for 15-30 years typically possess:
- Substantial equity: Many condos purchased at S$500,000-S$1,000,000 in the 1990s-2000s are now worth S$1.5-3 million
- Strong purchasing power: Even after accounting for outstanding loans, sale proceeds often exceed S$1 million
- Cash flexibility: Unlike first-time buyers constrained by CPF and loan limits, downgraders can make substantial cash offers
This financial profile is precisely what concerned policymakers in 2022. Without the wait-out period, these buyers could:
| Potential Impact | Mechanism |
|---|---|
| Price pressure on premium resale flats | Cash-rich buyers outbidding HDB upgraders in mature estates |
| Segmentation acceleration | Widening price gaps between "hot" and "cold" locations |
| Reduced affordability for sandwiched class | Families earning above HDB income ceilings but priced out of private market |
The 55+ Exception: A Natural Experiment
The existing exemption for seniors 55+ purchasing 4-room or smaller flats offers insight into how unrestricted downgrading might behave. While specific transaction data isn't publicly available, property agents report consistent demand from this segment for:
- 3-room and 4-room flats in mature estates (Tampines, Bedok, Ang Mo Kio)
- Ground-floor or lift-accessible units for ageing-in-place
- Units near MRT stations and amenities for reduced mobility
If this exemption segment has contributed to sustained demand in specific micro-markets, scaling it to all age groups and flat types could amplify these effects substantially.
Expert Perspectives: Divided Opinions on Policy Reform
The debate over the 15-month wait-out period has elicited contrasting views from property analysts, with implications for how policymakers might assess PropNex's proposal.
The Case for Removal
Lee Sze Teck, Senior Director of Research at Huttons Asia, has articulated a position broadly supportive of policy recalibration. He suggests that lifting the wait-out period, combined with other adjustments—such as revising BTO income ceilings and lowering the age threshold for single buyers—could effectively address evolving demand patterns without destabilising the market.
Proponents of removal emphasize:
- Market efficiency: Artificial delays distort price discovery and transaction timing
- Individual autonomy: Property owners should have flexibility to manage their housing transitions
- Rental market relief: Eliminating the wait-out period reduces demand for temporary rental accommodation
- Demographic necessity: Singapore's ageing population requires housing policies that facilitate rather than hinder downsizing
The Case for Retention
Skeptics warn that abolishing the wait-out period risks rekindling price inflation precisely when supply constraints remain acute. Their concerns include:
- Pent-up demand release: Years of suppressed downgrading could flood the market simultaneously
- Asymmetric impact: Financially capable downgraders could disproportionately affect specific segments (mature estates, larger flats) while leaving others unaffected
- Policy credibility: Removing measures too quickly undermines the government's ability to manage future market cycles
- First-time buyer displacement: The original rationale—protecting vulnerable buyers—remains valid
The Government's Position: Review Without Commitment
Official signals suggest active consideration without predetermined outcomes. HDB has consistently maintained that the 15-month wait-out period is "temporary" and subject to review "depending on overall demand and market changes."
Minister for National Development Desmond Lee has indicated awareness of the policy's friction costs, particularly for seniors, while emphasizing the need to balance multiple stakeholder interests. The government's approach appears to be data-dependent—monitoring transaction volumes, price trajectories, and demographic trends before determining whether modification, abolition, or retention serves broader housing objectives.
Scenario Analysis: What Happens If the Wait-Out Period Disappears?
To assess PropNex's proposal rigorously, we can model several scenarios based on different assumptions about pent-up demand and market response.
Scenario 1: Measured Release (Base Case)
Assumptions:
- 30-40% of suppressed downgraders enter market within 12 months of removal
- Supply response from increased MOP flats in 2026 absorbs additional demand
- Price impact concentrated in mature estates and larger flat types
Outcome:
- Short-term (6-12 months): 3-5% price appreciation in affected segments; minimal impact on overall index
- Medium-term (1-2 years): Market absorbs additional demand; price growth returns to 3-4% annual range
Scenario 2: Pent-Up Demand Surge
Assumptions:
- 60%+ of suppressed downgraders attempt simultaneous entry
- Supply inelasticity in short term
- Herd behavior amplifies price expectations
Outcome:
- Short-term: 8-12% price spike in premium segments; overall index acceleration to 5-6%
- Policy response: Possible reintroduction of modified cooling measures or targeted interventions
Scenario 3: Structural Shift
Assumptions:
- Removal coincides with broader policy changes (ABSD adjustments, BTO reforms)
- Demographic downsizing wave accelerates
- Market segmentation intensifies
Outcome:
- Long-term restructuring: "Two-tier" HDB market with premium resale flats increasingly disconnected from BTO pricing
- Affordability concerns: Middle-income households squeezed between BTO eligibility limits and resale market prices
| Scenario | Probability Assessment | Key Risk Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Measured Release | Moderate (40%) | Supply responsiveness, gradual demand release |
| Pent-Up Surge | Significant (35%) | Demographic timing, market psychology |
| Structural Shift | Moderate (25%) | Accompanying policy changes, long-term trends |
Comparative Context: How Does Singapore's Approach Compare?
Singapore's 15-month wait-out period represents a uniquely restrictive approach to managing public-private housing transitions. International comparisons offer limited direct analogues—most jurisdictions don't maintain parallel public housing systems of comparable scale—but reveal alternative frameworks for managing housing market stability:
| Jurisdiction | Comparable Mechanism | Key Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong | Stamp duties on property flipping | No public housing purchase restrictions based on prior ownership |
| Germany | Rental market regulation; speculative taxes | Strong tenant protections reduce ownership pressure |
| Netherlands | Social housing income and asset tests | Time-limited eligibility rather than transition delays |
Singapore's approach reflects its unique housing architecture: a dominant public housing sector with explicit affordability mandates, coexisting with a vibrant private market. The wait-out period is essentially a boundary management tool—regulating traffic across the public-private divide to preserve each sector's distinct functions.
The ABSD Connection: PropNex's Broader Cooling Measure Critique
PropNex's proposal to abolish the wait-out period doesn't exist in isolation. The agency has simultaneously advocated for Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) adjustments, revealing a comprehensive critique of current cooling architecture.
The ABSD Burden on HDB Upgraders
A particularly pointed PropNex recommendation involves allowing ABSD deferral for HDB upgraders until their existing flat is sold. Currently, Singaporean citizens purchasing a second property face 20% ABSD (as of 2023 cooling measures), payable upfront and rebateable only upon sale of the first property within specified timeframes.
This creates acute cash flow pressure:
| Transaction Type | ABSD Rate | Upfront Cash Required (S$1.5M property) |
|---|---|---|
| Citizen first property | 0% | S$0 |
| Citizen second property | 20% | S$300,000 |
| Permanent Resident first property | 5% | S$75,000 |
For HDB owners upgrading to private property, this S$300,000 upfront requirement—even if ultimately rebateable—can derail transactions or force distressed sales of the existing flat.
Luxury Market Proposals
PropNex's suggestion to reduce ABSD to 30% for properties above S$10 million (from 35% for citizens, higher for foreigners) targets a different segment entirely. This reflects concern that ultra-luxury market stagnation—evident in subdued transaction volumes at the top end—may have spillover effects on broader market sentiment and foreign investment perception.
Food for Thought: Questions That Should Shape the Debate
As policymakers, industry participants, and ordinary Singaporeans weigh PropNex's proposal, several fundamental questions merit deeper consideration:
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If the 15-month wait-out period is abolished, what "circuit breakers" should exist to prevent future market overheating? Should policymakers consider more targeted tools—such as income-based eligibility tiers or location-specific restrictions—rather than blanket temporal delays?
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How do we balance "market efficiency" against "housing as social good"? Singapore's public housing system has always prioritized accessibility over pure market optimization. At what point does facilitating property transactions compromise the system's social mission?
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What support mechanisms should accompany any liberalization? If ageing condo owners are enabled to downsize more easily, should concurrent measures address potential displacement of younger families—such as expanded BTO priority schemes or rental assistance?
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How should we interpret the "temporary" nature of cooling measures in an era of persistent low supply? With MOP-eligible flat volumes historically volatile, can any demand-side measure be truly temporary, or should we architect more adaptive, automatic stabilizers?
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What role should demographic forecasting play in housing policy? As Singapore's population ages, downgrading demand will structurally increase regardless of policy settings. Are our housing institutions prepared for this inevitable transition?
Conclusion: A Calculated Risk in Uncertain Times
PropNex's call to abolish the 15-month wait-out period is neither obviously correct nor demonstrably reckless—it is a calculated gamble based on specific readings of market conditions that may or may not prove durable. The agency's core argument—that cooling measures have successfully moderated the HDB resale market—finds support in headline price and volume data. Yet the persistence of million-dollar transactions, acute supply constraints in the near term, and the uncertain magnitude of pent-up downgrading demand all counsel caution.
For ageing condo owners, the proposal represents welcome recognition of their legitimate housing needs. For first-time buyers and HDB upgraders, it risks renewed competition from financially formidable opponents. For policymakers, it presents a familiar challenge: balancing individual flexibility against collective affordability in a housing system that remains, fundamentally, a pillar of Singaporean social policy.
The government's review of the 15-month wait-out period will ultimately turn on whether current market moderation is deemed structural and sustainable, or merely cyclical and fragile. That determination will require more than backward-looking statistics—it will demand judgment about Singapore's demographic trajectory, the responsiveness of housing supply, and the appropriate role of public housing in an increasingly affluent society.
Whatever the outcome, the debate itself illuminates how Singapore's property policy continues to evolve, adapting cooling measures first forged in crisis to the more complex challenges of a maturing, ageing nation.
At Hiva, we track these policy developments and market dynamics through comprehensive data analytics—helping property enthusiasts, buyers, and industry professionals make informed decisions in Singapore's evolving housing landscape. Explore our platform for real-time HDB resale data, price trends, and district-level insights.